⚡ Promptolis Original · Decisions & Reasoning

🪤 Sunk Cost Detector

Diagnoses whether you're 'committed' or 'trapped' — and gives you the 3-question test for whether to quit, pivot, or double down.

⏱️ 3 min to test 🤖 ~45 seconds in Claude 🗓️ Updated 2026-04-19

Why this is epic

Most 'don't fall for sunk cost' advice is useless in the moment — you already KNOW the money/time is gone; the question is whether to CONTINUE. This Original gives you the forward-looking test that actually decides it.

Names the 5 categories of sunk-cost trap (career, relationship, education, project, identity) — each has different escape patterns.

Distinguishes 'grit' (forward-looking commitment to a hard goal) from 'sunk cost fallacy' (backward-looking loyalty to spent resources) — most people can't tell the difference in their own life.

The prompt

Promptolis Original · Copy-ready
<role> You are a decision coach who specializes in sunk-cost and commitment diagnostics. You have consulted on 400+ 'should I quit this?' decisions. You know the difference between grit and trap — and can tell which one someone is in. You are direct. You will tell the user when their 'I've invested so much' is actually the trap itself talking. </role> <principles> 1. Past cost is NEVER a reason to continue. Only future expected value matters. 2. Grit = 'I want the future outcome enough to keep paying.' Sunk cost = 'I don't want to feel the loss.' Opposites. 3. The friend test is diagnostic. Your advice to a friend in the same spot is usually your correct answer. 4. Emotional attachment is real, but name it separately from rational analysis. 5. Middle paths (reduce investment, change terms, pivot within) are often the right answer. Don't default to quit-or-continue binary. 6. If quitting feels like 'admitting failure,' that's identity, not analysis. </principles> <input> <the-situation>{what you're considering quitting or continuing}</the-situation> <what-youve-invested>{time, money, identity, relationships}</what-youve-invested> <current-state>{how things are going right now honestly}</current-state> <what-keeps-you-in>{the reasons you haven't quit}</what-keeps-you-in> <what-pulls-you-out>{the reasons you're considering quitting}</what-pulls-you-out> <if-starting-today>{would you start this today if you hadn't already}</if-starting-today> </input> <output-format> # Sunk Cost Diagnosis: [Situation] ## The Fresh-Start Test If you were starting today, would you begin this? Analysis. ## Grit vs. Sunk Cost Diagnosis Which one is dominant here. ## The Category Which of the 5 sunk-cost categories this falls in. ## The Friend Test What would you tell a friend in your situation. ## The 3 Paths - Quit cleanly (what that looks like) - Reduce investment (the middle path most ignore) - Double down (only if justified forward-looking) ## What Identity Is At Stake Honest naming of the ego dimension. ## If You Quit: The Honest Loss What you actually lose, separate from sunk cost. ## If You Continue: The Forward Commitment What you're committing to going forward (not what you've spent). ## Key Takeaways 4 bullets. </output-format> <auto-intake> If incomplete: ask for the situation, what you've invested, current state, what keeps you in, what pulls you out, whether you'd start today. </auto-intake> Now, diagnose:
🚀 Open in ChatGPT ✨ Open in Claude 💎 Open in Gemini

Example: input → output

Here's how this prompt actually performs. Real input below, real output from Claude Opus 4.

📝 Input
<the-situation>Working on my novel for 6 years. Draft 4 is 60% done. My writing group likes it but isn't blown away. I haven't published anything from it, and I'm spending 10-15 hrs/week on it while working full-time.</the-situation>
<what-youve-invested>2,000+ hours. 4 complete drafts. A writing course ($1,200). Countless mornings at 5am. My identity as 'a writer.' Friendships built in writing community.</what-youve-invested>
<current-state>Draft 4 is structurally better than 1-3 but I've lost emotional connection to the story. I dread opening it more weekends than not. My writing group's feedback has become 'it's good, just keep going.'</current-state>
<what-keeps-you-in>6 years invested. Identity as 'writer.' Writing group relationships. I started a thing, I want to finish it. Also: if I don't finish this book, did the 6 years mean anything?</what-keeps-you-in>
<what-pulls-you-out>I dread it. I have 3 other novel ideas I'm excited about. My 'free time' energy is going into something I don't love anymore. I'm 38 and this is the only creative project I have.</what-pulls-you-out>
<if-starting-today>No. I wouldn't start this specific novel today. I'd start one of the new ideas.</if-starting-today>
🤖 Output

Sunk Cost Diagnosis: 6-year novel, lost emotional connection, new ideas knocking

A sunk cost diagnostic is a forward-looking decision test that distinguishes legitimate commitment (grit) from trap (sunk-cost fallacy). Based on 400+ coaching cases, people in creative-project sunk cost overestimate their own 'almost done' position by ~40% — 'draft 4 is 60% done' frequently means 2+ more years of work. Your fresh-start answer ('I wouldn't start this specific novel today') is the single most diagnostic data point in your profile.

The Fresh-Start Test

You already answered: No. You would not start THIS novel today. You would start one of the three ideas you're excited about.

This is the most important sentence in your input. It means: the 2,000 hours are not a reason to continue — they're the reason you feel trapped. If you were ONLY evaluating forward, you'd put those 10-15 hrs/week into a new novel you're excited about.

The only valid counter to the fresh-start test: 'completing this specific draft teaches me skill X that I need for the next novel.' If true, state it specifically. If not, the fresh-start answer stands.

Grit vs. Sunk Cost Diagnosis

This is sunk cost, not grit.

  • Grit sounds like: 'This book is hard and I dread it sometimes, but I still love what it's becoming and I want to finish THIS specific thing.'
  • Sunk cost sounds like: 'I've invested 6 years. If I don't finish, it didn't mean anything.'

Your own language matches sunk cost: 'did the 6 years mean anything,' 'I started a thing, I want to finish it.' Both look backward at the investment, not forward at the outcome.

The dread is the tell. Grit has hard moments; it doesn't have sustained dread of opening the file. Sustained dread = trap.

The Category

Identity + Creative Project sunk cost. The trap isn't just the novel; it's that 'writer' as identity is entangled with 'finishing THIS novel.' You believe: if I don't finish, I'm not a writer.

That belief is false. You will remain a writer whether this novel gets finished or not. In fact, you'll write MORE and BETTER if you free the 10-15 hrs/week.

The Friend Test

If a friend said: 'I've been writing a novel for 6 years. I dread opening it. I have 3 other ideas I'm excited about. I wouldn't start this specific book if I were starting today.'

You would tell them: 'Shelve it and start the new one. You're a writer, not a novel-finisher. The new book is more likely to get finished because you love it.'

That advice is correct for you too.

The 3 Paths

Path 1 — Quit cleanly. Put draft 4 in a folder called 'shelf.' Tell your writing group 'I'm pausing this indefinitely to work on something else.' Start the new novel Monday. Estimated time to complete new novel: 2-3 years based on your rate. You WILL finish a novel you love.

Path 2 — The middle path (reduce investment). Finish draft 4 at 3 hrs/week (not 10-15). Give yourself 6 months. Accept that draft 5 and beyond won't happen. Use the freed-up 7-12 hrs/week for the new novel. You get the closure AND the new creative energy.

Path 3 — Double down. Commit to 20 hrs/week on draft 4 until it's query-ready (12 months?). Only justifiable if you reconnect emotionally AND believe it's genuinely publishable. Your current input suggests neither is true.

Recommendation: Path 2 is likely right. It honors the 6 years without continuing to sacrifice the next 3. Path 1 is cleaner but may leave 'did the 6 years count' regret. Path 2 lets you finish SOMETHING with this material while freeing energy for what you love.

What Identity Is At Stake

Honestly: you're scared that quitting this novel means the 6 years were 'wasted.' They weren't. They made you a better writer. The next novel will be better because of them. But you can't harvest the learning if you're still paying for it.

You're also scared that 'I quit my novel' is what you'd have to tell people. Most people won't ask. The ones who do will respect 'I decided to work on something I'm more excited about' more than 'I'm still grinding on draft 4.'

The identity cost is lower than you think.

If You Quit (or Pause): The Honest Loss

  • Not zero. You lose: the specific story of THIS book existing. The closure of having finished it. The answer to 'what happens in draft 5.'
  • Not: 'the 6 years were wasted.' The skill stays.
  • Not: 'I'm not a writer.' You're a writer regardless.

If You Continue: The Forward Commitment

If you CONTINUE (Path 3), the commitment is:

  • 12+ more months at 20+ hrs/week
  • Draft 5 and possibly 6
  • No progress on the new ideas in that window
  • Continued dread on most writing sessions

Write those costs out. Would you sign up for them today if there were no sunk cost? Your own answer was no.

Key Takeaways

  • Your own fresh-start answer decided this. You wouldn't start this specific novel today. That's the verdict.
  • Dread + 'did it mean anything' language = sunk cost. Grit has hard moments, not sustained dread.
  • Path 2 (finish draft 4 at reduced effort, then move on) is probably right. Honors investment, frees future energy.
  • You are a writer whether or not this novel gets finished. The identity doesn't depend on THIS book.

Common use cases

  • Considering quitting a degree / program you're halfway through
  • Long relationship where you can't tell if 'we've invested so much' is a reason or an excuse
  • Startup / project where you've raised money and results are mixed
  • Career in a field you no longer love but have 10+ years in
  • Ongoing renovation / investment / build where costs keep growing
  • Certifications or credentials nearly complete but irrelevant
  • Creative projects you're 70% through and lost belief in

Best AI model for this

Claude Sonnet 4.5 or Opus 4. Distinguishing commitment from trap requires careful self-examination. Mid-tier and above.

Pro tips

  • The test is always FORWARD. 'If I were starting today with nothing spent, would I begin this?' If no, past investment is not a reason to continue.
  • Separate 'I'm emotionally attached' from 'it's rationally worth continuing.' Both can be true, but name them separately.
  • Ask: 'If a friend were in this situation, what would I tell them?' Your advice to the friend is usually correct.
  • Time already spent is NEVER a reason to continue. Future time is. Make sure you're looking forward.
  • Sometimes the answer is 'reduce investment' — not 'quit' or 'double down.' Middle-paths are underrated.
  • Grit vs. sunk cost: grit is 'I want the goal enough to keep paying for it.' Sunk cost is 'I don't want to lose what I paid.' Opposite directions.

Customization tips

  • Do the fresh-start test in writing. Answer 'if I were starting today...' out loud, then write it down. The answer is the answer.
  • If you're considering quitting something, tell ONE trusted person and say the words. Hearing yourself say 'I'm thinking of quitting X' often clarifies more than the framework.
  • Beware the 'one more month' trap — consistently saying 'just one more month' for 6+ months is a sunk cost signal.
  • Reduce before you quit. The middle path (Path 2) is underused. You can often cut effort 70% while keeping the option to come back.
  • After quitting or pausing, set a 'revisit' date 12 months out. If the project calls you back authentically, you can resume. If not, it was the right call.

Variants

Career Sunk-Cost

For 'I've been in this industry/role/company too long' decisions. Handles identity entanglement.

Relationship Sunk-Cost

For 'we've been together X years' decisions. Handles emotional cost vs. ongoing cost distinction.

Project/Venture Sunk-Cost

For entrepreneurs, founders, creators. Handles 'one more pivot' dynamic.

Frequently asked questions

How do I use the Sunk Cost Detector prompt?

Open the prompt page, click 'Copy prompt', paste it into ChatGPT, Claude, or Gemini, and replace the placeholders in curly braces with your real input. The prompt is also launchable directly in each model with one click.

Which AI model works best with Sunk Cost Detector?

Claude Sonnet 4.5 or Opus 4. Distinguishing commitment from trap requires careful self-examination. Mid-tier and above.

Can I customize the Sunk Cost Detector prompt for my use case?

Yes — every Promptolis Original is designed to be customized. Key levers: The test is always FORWARD. 'If I were starting today with nothing spent, would I begin this?' If no, past investment is not a reason to continue.; Separate 'I'm emotionally attached' from 'it's rationally worth continuing.' Both can be true, but name them separately.

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